← Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
Fire TonorisTier 2
at Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
decks
3
(2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
1-10-3
overall winrate
17.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.4%
avg ELO -6.8 per match
expected value
36.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1110
· median 1134
· range 1043–1153
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1151
Q3 1386
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.4% | -13.1 |
| Water Fractal | 11.8% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 34.7% | -9.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.2% | -4.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Polkhawk | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
